Research all publicly disclosed or credibly estimated financial metrics for OpenAI as of mid-2026, including annualized recurring revenue figures…
Full research prompt
Research all publicly disclosed or credibly estimated financial metrics for OpenAI as of mid-2026, including annualized recurring revenue figures (with sources and dates), revenue growth trajectory, profitability status, and any disclosed cost structure related to compute. Compile all known secondary market transaction valuations (cite specific figures, dates, and transaction types), the most recent primary fundraising round valuation, and analyze how these compare to public market ARR multiples for Palantir, Salesforce, and Microsoft's AI-related segments. Produce a comparative valuation table.
From What do we know about the OpenAI IPO
OpenAI converted its capped-profit LLC into a Delaware Public Benefit Corporation on October 28, 2025. This entity is now known as OpenAI Group PBC. The conversion represents the pivotal step toward its potential IPO.
OpenAI's revenue run rate reached approximately $24–25 billion ARR by early-to-mid 2026, driven by rapid scaling of ChatGPT consumer subscriptions, enterprise adoption (now >40% of revenue), and an emerging ads business.[1][2]
OpenAI's own March 2026 update stated it was generating $2 billion in monthly revenue (implying a ~$24 billion annualized run rate), with enterprise contributing more than 40% and on track for parity with consumer by year-end. Ads pilots hit $100 million ARR in weeks. This aligns with third-party estimates from Sacra ($25 billion ARR in February 2026, up from $20 billion at end-2025) and Reuters/The Information ($25 billion+ ARR by end-February 2026, a 17% increase from $21.4 billion at year-end 2025).[3][4]
Full-year 2025 actual revenue was approximately $13.1 billion. Q1 2026 revenue reached $5.7 billion. Growth has been explosive: from ~$2 billion ARR in 2023 and $6 billion in 2024 to $20 billion+ in 2025 and $25 billion+ by March 2026. Enterprise momentum and usage growth (search nearly tripled year-over-year) underpin the trajectory, though some reports note Anthropic briefly surpassing OpenAI on ARR in spring 2026.[5][6]
- Implication for competitors/entrants: The combination of consumer scale + enterprise data moat creates a flywheel; new entrants must match both distribution and inference economics to compete on price or features.
OpenAI remains deeply unprofitable, with Q1 2026 showing a –122% non-GAAP operating margin and $3.7 billion cash burn on $5.7 billion revenue, driven overwhelmingly by compute and inference costs.[5][7]
Gross margins stand at ~33%, constrained by inference costs that totaled $8.4 billion in 2025 and are projected to rise to $14.1 billion in 2026. Cash burn is estimated at ~$27 billion for full-year 2026 (some internal forecasts cite ~$14 billion net loss). The company faces hundreds of billions in long-term compute commitments (recently reset target of ~$600 billion cumulative spend by 2030). It is not expected to reach cash-flow breakeven until ~2030 under current trajectories.[2][8]
- Implication: High fixed/variable compute costs create a capital intensity barrier unlike traditional SaaS; competitors with better hardware efficiency (e.g., custom chips) or lower inference demand can achieve structurally superior unit economics.
The most recent primary round closed March 31, 2026, at an $852 billion post-money valuation after raising $122 billion (led by Amazon, Nvidia, SoftBank). Secondary market pricing in June 2026 implied valuations of roughly $700–900 billion.[1][9]
Forge Global reported a derived price of $721.85 per share as of June 26, 2026 (implying ~$894 billion valuation). Hiive indicated ~$704 per share around the same period. Earlier secondaries included a $500 billion valuation in October 2025 (employee share sales) and implied levels around $600–750 billion in late 2025. Demand for OpenAI shares reportedly softened in secondary markets by spring 2026 as capital rotated toward rivals like Anthropic.[10]
Prior primary rounds included ~$110 billion at $730–840 billion (February 2026) and $40 billion at $300 billion (2025).
OpenAI trades at ~34x ARR on its $852 billion primary valuation (or ~36x on recent secondary levels) for ~$25 billion ARR—broadly in line with high-growth public AI-exposed names like Palantir but at a massive premium to mature SaaS like Salesforce.[11]
Comparative Valuation Table (mid-2026 data)
| Metric | OpenAI | Palantir | Salesforce | Microsoft AI Segment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARR / Revenue Run Rate | ~$25B (Feb/Mar 2026) | ~$6.5B+ (Q1 2026 run rate); ~$7.2B FY26 guide | ~$41.5B FY26 total revenue (AI/Agentforce subset ~$0.8B+ ARR) | $37B AI annualized run rate |
| Valuation | $852B primary (Mar 2026); ~$700–900B secondary (Jun 2026) | ~$271B market cap (Jun 2026) | ~$130B market cap (Jun 2026) | Embedded in ~$3T+ MSFT market cap (AI drives Azure/Productivity growth) |
| Multiple (approx.) | 34x ARR (primary); ~28–36x (secondary range) | ~38–42x forward revenue (or ~36x cited in market commentary) | ~3.1x revenue | Lower effective multiple (MSFT overall trades ~10–14x EBITDA or lower P/S; AI premium embedded) |
| Growth Context | Explosive (4x faster than internet/mobile leaders); enterprise ramping to 50% | 85% YoY Q1 2026; 61–71% FY26 guide | ~8–10% YoY; AI subsets growing 169%+ | Strong (Azure AI contribution significant; 123% YoY AI ARR growth cited) |
Palantir commands a comparable premium due to elite growth and Rule of 40 scores (>100%+), while Salesforce reflects mature SaaS realities at low-single-digit multiples. Microsoft's AI revenue benefits from platform scale but faces investor scrutiny on associated capex.[12][13][14]
- Implication: OpenAI's valuation reflects expectations of continued hyper-growth and platform dominance, but sustained losses and compute intensity introduce execution risk not fully priced into public multiples. New entrants or rivals (e.g., Anthropic) are being valued on similar growth narratives but at potentially better unit economics. Public market investors apply discounts for maturity, profitability, and scale, creating a wide gap versus private AI leaders.
Recent Findings Supplement (June 2026)
OpenAI reached a $25 billion ARR run rate by February/March 2026 (up from ~$20 billion at end-2025), with Q1 2026 revenue of $5.7 billion (~$23 billion annualized pace) and a $2 billion monthly run rate cited in its March 2026 update.[1][2][3]
- Sacra and Reuters/The Information reporting (March 2026) pegged the February exit rate at $25 billion ARR, reflecting 17% sequential growth from year-end 2025 levels; enterprise revenue exceeded 40% of the total and was on track for parity with consumer by end-2026.[2][4]
- OpenAI stated it was “on track” for a $30 billion 2026 revenue target, with ads pilot contributing $100 million ARR in weeks and search usage tripling year-over-year.[5][3]
- Full-year 2025 actual revenue was reported around $13.1 billion in multiple analyses.[6]
Q1 2026 losses and margins underscore extreme compute-driven cost pressure: $3.7 billion cash burn on $5.7 billion revenue, with -122% non-GAAP operating margin.[7][5]
- The Information (June 2026) detailed the Q1 burn exceeding half of revenue, alongside $665 billion in long-term computing commitments; earlier internal projections had flagged potential $14 billion full-year 2026 losses.[7]
- R&D and cost-of-revenue lines scaled dramatically (e.g., 2025 R&D reportedly ~$19 billion in leaked analyses), reflecting inference and training costs that outpace revenue growth even as the company scales to hundreds of millions of users.[8]
- Profitability remains distant; cumulative losses through the late 2020s are projected in the tens of billions before any breakeven.
The most recent primary round closed in March 2026 at an $852 billion post-money valuation with $122 billion raised; secondary/Forge markets priced shares implying ~$894–895 billion as of late June 2026.[3][9]
- OpenAI’s own March 31, 2026 announcement detailed the $122 billion round (including large commitments from SoftBank, Nvidia, Microsoft, and others), marking the largest private financing on record at that scale.[3]
- Confidential S-1 filed around June 8, 2026, with IPO targeting discussed up to $1 trillion (potentially 2027); prior secondary tender (October 2025) had cleared at $500 billion.[10][11]
- Forge Global data as of June 26–28, 2026, showed a per-share price implying ~$894 billion valuation.[9]
Comparative valuation table (mid-2026 data; multiples approximate EV/Revenue or ARR where applicable; public SaaS baseline ~3–6x with AI/growth premiums elevating leaders).[12]
- OpenAI: ~$25B ARR (Feb 2026); $852B primary (Mar 2026) / ~$895B secondary (Jun 2026) → ~34x ARR.
- Palantir: ~$6.5B+ ARR / Q1 2026 revenue $1.633B (85% YoY); market cap ~$271–300B (Jun 2026) → ~40–45x revenue (reports cite 20–43x range depending on exact forward/revenue base).[13][14]
- Salesforce: $41.5B FY2026 revenue (10% YoY); Agentforce/AI ARR components growing 169%+; market cap ~$130B (Jun 2026) → ~3x revenue.[15][16]
- Microsoft AI-related: $37B AI business run rate (reported Apr 2026, +123% YoY); embedded in larger Intelligent Cloud/Azure (~$75B+ annual Azure run rate context); overall MSFT market cap multi-trillion → effective AI-segment multiple significantly lower (diluted across diversified base with strong but not frontier-AI margins).
These figures show OpenAI and Palantir trading at 30–45x multiples driven by hyper-growth and AI positioning, far above mature SaaS like Salesforce at ~3x, while Microsoft’s AI contribution commands a blended premium within its broader portfolio. Secondary markets for OpenAI have remained liquid near the $852–900B range post-primary round, with IPO optionality discussed at up to $1T. Compute cost trajectories and Anthropic’s competing ARR claims (reportedly surpassing OpenAI in some Q2 2026 snapshots) remain key variables for whether these multiples compress or expand.