Anthropic Revenue and Run-Rate: S-1 and Growth Data
Full research prompt
Compile the latest publicly reported and estimated Anthropic revenue, annualized run-rate figures, and quarterly growth from 2024 through Q3 2026. Use the S-1 if it exists, plus company statements and credible reporting. Present a dated table with the source for each figure, labeling each as "reported" or "publicly estimated". Note definitional differences between run-rate, recognized revenue, and gross versus net revenue treatment of cloud-reseller sales.
From Anthropic Revenue and Burn Rate: What the IPO Filing Shows
The S-1 is public. Next I’ll pull the filed quarterly numbers, the company’s own run-rate definition, and how cloud-reseller sales are recognized.
The S-1 is on EDGAR. I’ll extract the revenue tables and the run-rate and marketplace accounting language directly.
Anthropic’s public S-1, filed October 26, 2026, locks in recognized revenue through June 30, 2026. Everything after that — including the third quarter and the company’s own run-rate metric — is either a blank in the filing, a figure told to investors and reported by the press, or an outside estimate. The gap between those measures is the story, not a rounding error.
What the S-1 actually reports
The registration statement (Nasdaq ticker ANT) is the first audited look at Claude’s books. Revenue is recognized gross, including cloud-marketplace sales, and the growth is almost entirely back-loaded: the June 2026 quarter alone was larger than all of 2025.
The summary statement of operations in the filing shows:
| Period | Revenue |
|---|---|
| Year ended Dec. 31, 2023 | $41 million |
| Year ended Dec. 31, 2024 | $386 million |
| Year ended Dec. 31, 2025 | $4,585 million |
| Six months ended June 30, 2025 | $1,163 million |
| Six months ended June 30, 2026 | $16,286 million |
That is +841% in 2024, +1,088% in 2025, and +1,300% in the first half of 2026. Full years are audited; the six-month periods are unaudited. The same filing leaves the September 2026 dollar figure and “Run-Rate Revenue as of October 31, 2026” blank. [1] [2] [3]
Readers of the prospectus who extracted the quarterly line get a series that adds back to those totals exactly:
| Quarter | Recognized revenue | QoQ | YoY | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | $197 million | — | — | Reported in S-1 narrative |
| Q1 2025 | $376 million | +91% | — | Reported |
| Q2 2025 | $787 million | +109% | — | Reported |
| Q3 2025 | $1,382 million | +76% | — | Reported |
| Q4 2025 | $2,040 million | +48% | — | Reported |
| Q1 2026 | $4,731 million | +132% | +1,158% | Reported |
| Q2 2026 | $11,555 million | +144% | +1,368% | Reported |
| Q3 2026 | See below | — | — | Dollar amount blank in the S-1 |
Q1–Q4 2025 sum to $4,585 million. Q1–Q2 2026 sum to $16,286 million. Q2 2026 was the first GAAP operating profit the filing reports, $974 million, after a $1,667 million operating loss in Q1. [4] [5] [6]
The filing says third-quarter 2026 revenue was 86 times fourth-quarter 2024 revenue. At the $197 million base that multiple implies about $16.9 billion. It does not print the dollar amount. [6] [2]
Q3 2026: investor-day number vs. the blank in the prospectus
On October 14, Anthropic told prospective investors that third-quarter revenue was $16.8 billion, up about 45% from the second quarter ($11.6 billion in Reuters’ and CNBC’s telling; the Financial Times used a $11.5 billion base and “nearly 50%”). The company also said it was profitable on an adjusted basis for a second straight quarter. Reuters, the Financial Times, and CNBC all attribute the $16.8 billion figure to people who were in the room, not to the S-1. [7] [8] [9]
The two Q3 readings sit about $100 million apart: $16.8 billion from the investor day, roughly $16.9 billion from 86 × $197 million. Treat $16.8 billion as what management told investors and ~$16.9 billion as arithmetic on a filing disclosure, not as two independent audits.
Adding the investor-day quarter to the filed halves gives about $33.1 billion of recognized revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2026 (my sum of $4,731 million + $11,555 million + $16.8 billion). That figure is not in the S-1. Q4 2026 has not been reported. Today is October 28, 2026.
Run-rate is a different number, and it ran far ahead of recognized revenue
Anthropic does not report ARR. The S-1 defines Run-Rate Revenue as trailing 28-day consumption fees times 13, plus monthly subscription fees times 12. That is a four-week snapshot, not contracted recurring revenue, and the filing says it can include usage later found to violate policy. The October 31, 2026 figure is blank. [1] [10]
Company statements and credible press, dated:
| As of | Run-rate | Label | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2024 | ~$87 million | Company-cited | Trajectory Anthropic has described; VentureBeat, May 8, 2026 |
| Dec 2024 | ~$1 billion | Reported | Later confirmed by the company to CNBC; also The Information |
| Early Mar 2025 | ~$1.4 billion | Publicly estimated | The Information, sources |
| May–Jun 2025 | $3 billion | Reported | Company told CNBC; +$1 billion from March to May |
| Jul 2025 | ~$4 billion | Press-reported, sources | Bloomberg, via Techmeme’s series |
| Aug 2025 | More than $5 billion | Reported | Company statement, via Reuters |
| Mid-Oct 2025 | Approaching $7 billion | Reported | Company told Reuters, Oct 15, 2025 |
| End 2025 | ~$9 billion; Amodei said nearly $10 billion | Both in the record | Bloomberg sources: $9 billion+. Amodei, Bloomberg TV, Dec 9, 2025: from $1 billion at the start of the year to $10 billion annualized at the end. Do not collapse these into one number |
| Feb 12, 2026 | $14 billion | Reported | Company blog, Series G |
| Mar 2026 | $19 billion | Press-reported, sources | Bloomberg series |
| Apr 2026 | $30 billion | Reported | “Anthropic says,” VentureBeat, May 8, 2026 |
| Early May 2026 | ~$44 billion | Publicly estimated | Secondary accounts ahead of the Series H disclosure; not the figure in the company post |
| Earlier in May 2026 | Crossed $47 billion | Reported | Company blog, May 28, 2026, with the $65 billion Series H |
| End of Jul 2026 | More than $65 billion | Company-disclosed to investors | Investor update; Bloomberg first, CNBC confirmed. Not in the S-1 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | $74.3 billion | Third-party, inconsistent | Dealroom. Conflicts with the end-July investor figure of $65 billion+. Do not use as a company number |
| Oct 2026 | ~$70 billion (Sacra); ~$74 billion (SemiAnalysis) | Publicly estimated | S-1 line is blank. FT said Anthropic did not update the $65 billion July figure at the October investor meeting; SemiAnalysis annualized the new quarterly data to about $74 billion |
| Year-end 2026 | $110 billion | Forward estimate, not a result | Analysts who met executives, via Reuters / WSJ. Not a reported run-rate |
[11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [8] [7]
The mechanism that makes run-rate so much larger than recognized revenue is intra-period acceleration. Annualizing a quarter averages a ramp; the 28-day metric annualizes the exit week. That is why Q4 2025 recognized revenue of $2.04 billion annualizes to about $8.2 billion while the year-end run-rate was about $9–10 billion, and why Q2 2026 revenue of $11.555 billion annualizes to $46.2 billion while the end-July investor run-rate was above $65 billion. July sat after the quarter closed, on a still-rising curve. [5] [19]
Q3 broke that pattern. A $16.8 billion quarter annualizes to about $67 billion, only a few billion above the end-July run-rate of $65 billion+, after run-rate had gone from $14 billion in February to $65 billion in July. Sequential recognized growth slowed from +144% in Q2 to about +45% in Q3. Sacra’s October read is roughly $70 billion of annualized revenue, up only about 8% from the July figure. [22] [21] [8]
Gross versus net: the marketplace gross-up is real, and smaller than the headline share
Claude is sold direct and through Amazon Bedrock, Google’s cloud marketplace, and Microsoft Foundry. The S-1 treats Anthropic as principal: it has the customer contract, sets price, and delivers the model. Cloud providers are described as collection agents. They bill the end customer and remit cash net of fees. Anthropic books the full sale as revenue and the fee as an expense, not as contra-revenue. [23] [4] [24]
Marketplace share of reported revenue, from the S-1:
| Period | Share through cloud marketplaces |
|---|---|
| 2023 | ~11% |
| 2024 | ~32% |
| 2025 | ~47% |
| H1 2025 | ~44% |
| H1 2026 | ~48% |
On $16.286 billion of first-half 2026 revenue, 48% is about $7.8 billion booked through Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. [23] [25]
The fee, not the 48%, is the gross-versus-net difference. Reuters’ read of the confidential draft put 2025 marketplace sales at about $2.16 billion — consistent with 47% of $4.585 billion — and distribution fees at about $351 million, roughly 16 cents per marketplace dollar and about 8% of total 2025 revenue. Anthropic told Reuters it follows principal accounting. OpenAI has told investors the gross method inflates Anthropic’s reported revenue by billions; that claim and the $351 million 2025 fee can both be in the record without being the same calculation. [24] [26]
The public S-1, as read by Blockspace, does not give a first-half 2026 commission dollar figure. One secondary note (Dealroom) put distribution fees at about 17% of first-half revenue. That would be roughly $2.8 billion, far above 16% of the marketplace slice. I would not use it. The clean inference from the 2025 fee rate is that netting marketplace fees would cut reported revenue by high single digits, not by the 48% channel share.
Mix inside the gross number, also from the filing: consumption (token) revenue was $288 million in 2024 (75%), $3.8 billion in 2025 (83%), and about $13.1 billion in the first half of 2026 (80%). Subscriptions were $98 million, $789 million, and about $3.2 billion over those same periods. [27] [28] [29]
How to read the three definitions against each other
Recognized revenue is what the income statement will show once a quarter closes. It is gross of cloud fees, usage-heavy, and not contracted. Remaining performance obligations were only $10.8 billion against a Q2 revenue base that annualizes to $46.2 billion, so backlog covers well under a quarter of the exit pace. [5]
Run-Rate Revenue, as Anthropic defines it, multiplies the last 28 days. In a business that was adding several billion dollars of run-rate per month from February through July 2026, that metric systematically overshoots the quarter you just closed and the year you will actually recognize. It is the right metric for “what is the exit pace,” and the wrong one for “what did they earn.”
A third, informal metric — last quarter times four — sits between them. Q2 × 4 is $46.2 billion. End-July run-rate was above $65 billion. Q3 × 4 is about $67 billion, which finally caught the July run-rate because sequential growth slowed. Anyone comparing Anthropic to OpenAI, or to a software ARR multiple, has to say which of the three they are using. Bloomberg has already noted the two labs may not measure run-rate the same way. [30]
Internal targets from late 2025 are now a footnote, not a forecast. In October 2025 the company was aiming for a $9 billion run-rate by year-end 2025 (it hit that) and a 2026 base case above $20 billion with a best case of $26 billion. Recognized revenue in the first half of 2026 alone was $16.3 billion, and the nine-month sum is already above $30 billion. The Information’s January 2026 report that Anthropic had raised its 2026 sales forecast to as much as $18 billion was already stale by the time Q1 closed at $4.7 billion. [13] [31]
What this means if you are underwriting the IPO or competing with Claude
The comparable that matters is no longer “AI startup ARR.” It is whether the Q3 slowdown is a pause in a supply-constrained ramp or the start of a lower slope. The filing itself says revenue should not be expected to keep growing at these rates. Net revenue retention of about 900% as of September 30 is measured on a three-month-versus-year-ago-three-month basis for qualified customers, not the trailing-twelve-month SaaS definition, so it describes a base that was tiny a year earlier, not a steady-state expansion rate. [6] [10]
For a competitor, the economic fact is the gross booking, not the fee. Nearly half of first-half revenue was billed by Amazon, Google, or Microsoft, who are also investors, compute suppliers, and model competitors. Losing marketplace placement would hit both distribution and the receivables balance — marketplace sales were 58% of net receivables at June 30. [25]
For valuation math, do not put a revenue multiple on the July $65 billion run-rate and call it 2026 sales. Recognized 2025 revenue was $4.6 billion. Recognized first-half 2026 revenue was $16.3 billion. Nine-month recognized revenue, using the investor-day third quarter, is about $33 billion. A full-year 2026 number still depends on a fourth quarter that has not been reported, and on whether October’s model releases re-accelerated the 28-day metric the S-1 has not yet filled in. The next amended filing is the document that replaces the blanks for third-quarter revenue and October 31 run-rate. Until then, $16.8 billion and “above $65 billion” are management disclosures to investors, and ~$70–74 billion is other people’s annualization.
Recent Findings Supplement (October 2026)
Anthropic filed its S-1 on October 26, 2026 (Nasdaq: ANT planned), providing the first detailed public financials. This filing, combined with an October 14, 2026 investor presentation and contemporaneous reporting, supplies the core recent data (all post-April 28, 2026). Key themes include explosive but decelerating growth (still triple-digit YoY in Q2 2026 but ~45% QoQ in Q3), improving efficiency (revenue per compute dollar rising sharply), massive compute commitments, and a shift toward diversified customers.[1][2]
Reported quarterly and half-year revenue (S-1 primary source) shows H1 2026 already exceeding full-year 2025 by >3.5x. Q3 2026 revenue comes from the investor presentation (not dollarized in the initial S-1).[3][4]
Run-rate/annualized figures are estimates or derived; the S-1 defines a specific "Run-Rate Revenue" metric but left the October 31, 2026 value blank in the initial filing. Earlier run-rates (e.g., $65B end-July) come from investor updates and analysis.[5][6]
Cloud marketplace sales (AWS, Google Cloud, Azure) accounted for ~48% of H1 2026 revenue (~$7.8B). Anthropic recognizes these on a gross basis (as principal, with direct customer contracts and pricing control) and records CSP fees in sales/marketing expenses (not COGS). This inflates reported revenue relative to a net-of-fees treatment; fees were previously estimated in the hundreds of millions annually.[7][8]
Most revenue (~80% in H1 2026) is consumption-based (per-token usage); ~20% subscription-based. Net revenue retention reached ~900% as of September 30, 2026 (S-1; excludes Pro/Max plans). Top-5 customers ~25% of first-nine-months 2026 revenue; no single customer >10%.[2][9]
Dated Revenue Table (2024–Q3 2026)
All figures in USD billions unless noted. "Reported" = directly from S-1 or company statements; "Estimated/Publicly estimated" = derived from multiples, investor presentations, or analyst synthesis. Sources primarily October 2026 S-1 summaries and contemporaneous reporting.
- FY 2024: $0.386B (reported, S-1).[1]
- FY 2025: $4.585B–$4.59B (reported, S-1); grew ~11.9x from 2024.[1][10]
- H1 2025: $1.163B (reported, S-1).[2]
- Q1 2026: ~$4.731B (reported, S-1/MD&A).[11]
- Q2 2026: $11.555B–$11.6B (reported, S-1); ~144% QoQ, 1,368% YoY.[1][12]
- H1 2026: $16.286B–$16.3B (reported, S-1); ~14x YoY.[2][9]
- Q3 2026 (Jul–Sep): $16.8B (reported to investors; S-1 states ~86x Q4 2024’s $0.197B ≈ $16.9B range). ~45–46% QoQ from Q2.[3][13]
Quarterly growth slowed markedly in Q3 2026 after prior quarters of 100%+ sequential gains.[3]
Annualized Run-Rate / ARR Figures
- End-2025: ~$9B (publicly estimated from prior updates).[6]
- Late July 2026: >$65B (publicly estimated/run-rate from investor updates).[5][14]
- October 2026 estimates: ~$70B–$74B (publicly estimated; e.g., SemiAnalysis ~$74B based on Q3 data).[3][15]
- End-2026 projections (various): Below or around $100B (publicly estimated; growth slowing).[3][15]
S-1 Run-Rate Revenue definition (distinct from traditional ARR due to usage-based model): Trailing 28-day consumption fees × 13 + monthly subscriptions × 12. Value as of Oct 31, 2026 left blank in initial filing.[2][16]
Key Context and Definitional Notes
- Recognized revenue vs. run-rate: S-1 figures are recognized revenue (primarily usage-based, recognized as consumed). Run-rate annualizes recent activity for forward-looking scale but is not contracted recurring revenue.
- Gross vs. net cloud-reseller treatment: ~48% of H1 2026 revenue via marketplaces is booked gross by Anthropic (principal accounting); CSP fees (~16% effective rate in one prior-year estimate) hit operating expenses. This boosts top-line vs. net recognition peers.[17]
- Other notes: 80% consumption-based in H1 2026; improving unit economics (revenue per $1 compute rose from ~$0.40 in Q1 2025 to $2.08 in Q2 2026). Massive long-term compute commitments ($600B+ range cited across reports).[12][18]
These October 2026 disclosures represent the most material new public data; earlier 2026 estimates have been superseded or aligned with S-1 numbers. Growth remains exceptional but has moderated, with efficiency gains offsetting some cost pressures. For competition or valuation analysis, the gross marketplace accounting and usage-based concentration are critical differentiators versus traditional software metrics.