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Is the AI boom a bubble?

AI Cycle Monitor follows the argument so you don't have to. Every morning at 7am ET you get up to ten stories from both sides, one line each, with a link to the source. It's free.

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Where the argument stood over the last 5 mornings, Oct 11 to Oct 15

11 stories from the bears

6 stories from the bulls

Ed Zitron, Aswath Damodaran, Gary Marcus, IMF, Michael Burry, and Paul Tudor Jones

Dan Ives, Brad Gerstner, Connor Teskey, Gavin Baker, and Tom Lee

This morning's issue

Here it is as it went out at 7:03 AM ET. The first line is the read: what moved since yesterday. Then the story worth your click, then up to three stories in each section.

Bears
Warnings that AI stocks, capex or valuations have run too far
Bulls
The case that demand is real, and replies to the bubble view
Labs
OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI and others: revenue, burn, funding, IPOs
Hyperscalers & Capex
Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle: capex, data centers, power
Chips & Hardware
Nvidia, TSMC and the memory makers: orders, supply limits, export rules
The Money
Data-center debt, private credit, circular deals and AI IPOs

Huang: bubble fears overdone; Lee says 2033

AI Cycle Monitor

Huang tells Bloomberg bubble fears are overdone; Tom Lee dates the peak to 2033. The money questions keep drifting toward private credit and CoreWeave's funding.

Luminix's pick

Huang on Bloomberg in London ▶ Demand outruns component supply for years

Bears (2)

Tudor Jones on Squawk Pod Year-end rally, then short in 2027 Burry tallies the doubters 𝕏 Dalio, Son's $100B fund as bear ammo

Bulls (2)

Tom Lee: it's 1997, not 1999 $30T build-out, peak near 2033 Ives in Seoul on the KOSPI Calls 9,000 in 6-12 months

Labs (2)

Chamath on Anthropic's pre-IPO slide 𝕏 $200B off implied value; IPO ASAP Zitron on Anthropic distillation 𝕏 Says 5-7% of revenue; growth slowing

Chips & Hardware (1)

TSMC and ASML: binge not over Aju sees sustained HBM demand for Korea

The Money (2)

Chamath on a private-credit bubble Debt-funded build-out; lenders exposed CoreWeave courts insurance money FT: targets 'unlimited' insurer cash

Written by Luminix's AI from X, the web and a few must-read feeds. Not investment advice.

The mornings before

Each issue opens with one line on what moved. Read down the list and you have the week.

  1. The IMF says markets are exposed to an AI correction; ASML says demand outruns its supply through 2028. Baker answers the bears on Anthropic's $413bn.

  2. Chip stocks slid worldwide, with Korea's benchmark down 7% at one point, per Bloomberg. Zitron flags Character.AI's Chapter 11. Financing stays the bears' main exhibit.

  3. Gavin Baker, a bull, says nobody takes the labs' $1T in commitments seriously; Zitron counters with Anthropic's $413bn non-cancellable. TSMC reports Thursday.

  4. Reuters says Nvidia may buy into Anthropic's IPO, a supplier backing its customer again. AI debt issuance halved to $23bn in September, per Morgan Stanley data in the FT.

Who we follow

The editor checks these 30 voices every morning, plus anyone else who makes news. Being on the list does not earn a story. Saying something new does.

Bears 10

  • Ed Zitron Author, Where's Your Ed At; host, Better Offline
  • Jeremy Grantham Co-founder, GMO
  • Michael Burry Investor, Scion; Substack writer
  • Gary Marcus AI scientist and critic
  • Jim Chanos Short seller
  • David Einhorn Greenlight Capital
  • Daron Acemoglu MIT economist
  • Capital Economics Research firm (James Reilly: 'late-stage bubble')
  • Ruchir Sharma Rockefeller International; FT columnist
  • Torsten Slok Chief economist, Apollo

Bulls 11

  • Gavin Baker CIO, Atreides Management
  • Tom Lee Fundstrat
  • Dan Ives Wedbush tech analyst
  • Chamath Palihapitiya All-In host; investor
  • David Sacks All-In host; White House AI czar
  • Brad Gerstner Altimeter; BG2 host
  • Cathie Wood ARK Invest
  • Jensen Huang CEO, Nvidia
  • Sam Altman CEO, OpenAI
  • Dario Amodei CEO, Anthropic
  • Satya Nadella CEO, Microsoft

Both sides 9

  • Paul Tudor Jones Tudor Investment; warns of a crash, still buying
  • Ray Dalio Bridgewater founder
  • Howard Marks Oaktree memos
  • Andrew Ross Sorkin CNBC/DealBook; author of '1929'
  • Aswath Damodaran NYU valuation professor
  • Ben Thompson Stratechery
  • Dylan Patel SemiAnalysis
  • Bill Gurley Benchmark; BG2 co-host
  • Dwarkesh Patel Host, Dwarkesh Podcast

Get tomorrow's issue at 7am ET