Source Report
Research Question
Conduct a detailed inventory of Vistra's ~41 GW generation fleet across all fuel types — natural gas, nuclear (Comanche Peak, Beaver Valley, Davis-Besse, Perry), coal, solar, and battery storage (including Moss Landing). For each major asset or cluster, identify capacity (MW), market/ISO (ERCOT, PJM, MISO, NYISO, CAISO), operational status, and strategic role. Research the September 2024 Moss Landing battery storage fire — causes, scale of damage, insurance claims, regulatory response, and impact on Vistra's storage strategy. Produce an asset table organized by fuel type and geography.
Vistra's Generation Fleet Overview (~41 GW as of late 2024/early 2025)
Vistra operates America's largest competitive power generation fleet at approximately 41 GW net capacity (40,311 MW detailed as of Sep 2024, growing to 43.6 GW by Dec 2025 via gas acquisitions and uprates), diversified across natural gas (62%), coal (20%), nuclear (15%), solar/battery (3%), and minor oil, serving ERCOT (46%), PJM/ISO-NE/MISO/NYISO East (51%), and CAISO West (3%).[1][2][3] This merchant fleet mechanism—optimized via integrated retail hedging (5M customers), bilateral PPAs (e.g., Meta/AWS for nuclear), and capacity auctions (e.g., 10.5 GW cleared in PJM 2027/28 at $333/MW-day)—delivers ~96% fossil availability and 98% nuclear capacity factor, capturing scarcity pricing in high-demand ISOs amid data center/AI load growth (e.g., ERCOT/PJM). Non-obvious implication: Gas peakers (CT/ST) provide intraday flexibility pairing with nuclear baseload for 24/7 dispatch, outpacing pure-renewable rivals in reliability-constrained markets.[1]
| Fuel Type | Geography/ISO | Major Assets/Clusters | Capacity (MW) | Operational Status | Strategic Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural Gas | ERCOT (Texas: ~11.8 GW total gas) | Ennis (366), Forney (1,912 CCGT), Hays (1,047 CCGT), Lamar (1,076 CCGT), Midlothian (1,596 CCGT), Odessa (1,054), Poolville/Wise (787 CCGT), Granbury/DeCordova (260 CT), Colorado City/Morgan Creek (390 CT), Monahans/Permian (325 ST +860 under const. by 2028), Graham (630 ST), Hubbard/Lake Hubbard (921 ST), Stryker Creek (685 ST), Trinidad (244 ST) | ~24-27 GW fleet-wide (26,989 MW Dec 2025; ERCOT ~11.8 GW) | Fully operational (~59% CF CCGT); uprates +500 MW summer added 2024-25 | Peaking/flexible dispatch for ERCOT scarcity; ~28 CCGT/12 CT nationwide; Lotus (2.6 GW closed 2025), Cogentrix (5.5 GW pending 2026) expand PJM/ISO-NE/ERCOT.[1][2] |
| PJM/MISO/NYISO/ISO-NE (East: ~12 GW gas) | Fayette (726), Hanging Rock (1,430), Hopewell (370), Kendall (1,288), Liberty (607), Ontelaunee (600), Sayreville (349), Washington (711), Calumet (380), Dicks Creek (155); Patriot/Hamilton-Liberty (881 ea.), Lakewood (286), Rock Springs (740), Ocean (375) from acq.; others (Independence 1,212 NYISO, Bellingham/Blackstone/Casco/Milford/Lake Road/Masspower ISO-NE) | ~12 GW | Operational; capacity auction clears | Capacity revenue ($559M PJM 2021/22 ex.); data center support.[1] | |
| Nuclear | ERCOT | Comanche Peak (U1 1,200; U2 1,200) | 2,400 | Operational (95% CF); license to 2050/53; AWS PPA 1,200 MW (2027+) | Baseload carbon-free; ERCOT reliability.[3] |
| PJM | Beaver Valley (U1 939; U2 933), Davis-Besse (908), Perry (1,268) | 4,048 | Operational (98% CF); licenses to 2036-2047; Meta PPA 2,609 MW incl. 433 MW uprates (2026-34) | PTC-eligible (~$500M EBITDA upside); largest corp.-backed uprates; PJM capacity.[4][3] | |
| Coal | ERCOT | Martin Lake (2,250-2,455), Oak Grove (1,600-1,710), Coleto Creek (650; retire 2027, gas repower ~600 MW) | ~4.8-5.8 GW | Operational (54% CF); Coleto pending retire/repower | Transitional baseload; EPA compliance retirements; on-site lignite.[1] |
| MISO/PJM | Baldwin (1,185; retire 2027), Newton (615; retire 2027), Kincaid (1,108 PJM; retire 2027), Miami Fort 7&8 (1,020 PJM; retire 2028, gas repower) | ~3.9 GW | Operational; retirements 4.6 GW by 2027-28 | Declining (20% fleet); solar co-loc. (e.g., Baldwin 68 MW solar/2 MW batt.).[3] | |
| Solar | ERCOT | Brightside (50-180), Emerald Grove (108), Upton 2 (108 hybrid), Oak Hill (200) | ~338-450 | Operational/under dev. | Renewables growth; PPAs (e.g., AWS Oak Hill).[2] |
| MISO | Baldwin (68), Coffeen (44) | ~112 | Operational 2024 | Repurpose retired coal sites.[5] | |
| Battery Storage | CAISO (West) | Moss Landing (300 MW destroyed Jan 2025 fire; 100/350 MW offline/impaired, return late 2025/early 2026 uncertain; total pre-fire ~750-1,200 MW/3-3.5 GWh) | ~350-624 operational (post-fire) | 300 MW: Written off, Asset Closure (demolition mid-2026); others offline | Grid-scale arbitrage/ancillaries; world's largest pre-fire; fire shifts strategy to diversified/long-duration tech.[6][3] |
| ERCOT/MISO | DeCordova (260), Upton 2 hybrid (190), Coffeen/Baldwin/Newton (2 MW ea. hybrids) | ~270 Texas + minor IL | Operational | Intraday flexibility; Vistra Zero (~2.5-3 GW target 2026-27).[2] |
Moss Landing Battery Fire (January 16, 2025—not September 2024)
Vistra's Moss Landing 300 MW/1,200 MWh lithium-ion BESS (world's largest pre-incident) ignited via thermal runaway in ~100,000 modules (~55-80% damaged), burning days, evacuating locals, and dispersing heavy metals (55,000 lbs); fire suppression failed (3rd since 2021).[7][6] Cause unknown (ongoing Vistra/CPUC probe); $400M write-off (300 MW facility scrapped), $165M impaired (100 MW); $500M insurance limits ($198M property/BI proceeds received, $425M receivable); net -$101M income impact Q1-Q3 2025.[6] Regulatory: EPA NFRA Jan 22, 2025; Jul ASAOC ($110M cleanup: battery removal/recycle >15k modules, demolition to foundation by mid-2026, air/water monitoring; $81M accrued); CalEPA/CPUC oversight; no public health risks per initial monitoring.[7] Impact: Offline batteries tanked West EBITDA/revenue; 300 MW to Asset Closure (no restart); accelerates diversified storage (e.g., hybrids, long-duration) vs. lithium scale-up, but insurance cushions rebuild (350 MW return early 2026?).[3]
Implications for Competitors/Entrants: Vistra's data moat (retail hedge + fleet scale) locks 41 GW dispatch across ISOs, crushing pure-renewable plays in capacity markets; entrants need $743-900/kW gas builds or nuclear PPAs to compete, but face Vistra's acquisition spree (8 GW gas 2025-26). Batteries viable for ancillaries, but Moss fire highlights lithium risks—focus hybrids/co-loc. on retired coal.[8]
Sources:
- [web:131] Vistra Dec 2024 Investor Presentation (fleet table Sep 2024)
- [web:129] Vistra July 2025 Investor Presentation (assets/markets)
- [web:144] Vistra 2025 10-K (43.6 GW breakdown, nuclear/coal details)
- [web:142] Vistra Q3 2025 10-Q (Moss fire financials)
- [web:132] EPA Moss Landing page (fire Jan 2025, 55% damage)
- Others as cited inline. Confidence: High on capacities/status (direct filings); medium on exact Moss cause (ongoing). Additional 10-K deep-dive strengthens retirements/strategy.
Recent Findings Supplement (April 2026)
Nuclear Developments: Long-Term PPAs Secure Uprates and Extensions at PJM and ERCOT Assets
Vistra locked in 20-year PPAs totaling ~3.8 GW of nuclear capacity with Meta and Amazon—2,600+ MW (including 433 MW uprates) across PJM's Perry (1,268 MW operational), Davis-Besse (908 MW), and Beaver Valley (1,872 MW) plants starting late 2026/2027, plus 1,200 MW from ERCOT's Comanche Peak (2,400 MW total)—transforming merchant nuclear into contracted cash flows while funding uprates (e.g., Perry 213 MW, Davis-Besse 80 MW, Beaver Valley 140 MW by 2034) and license renewals through 2050s/2060s; this de-risks ~60% of its ~6.4 GW nuclear fleet amid AI/data center demand, with potential for another 3.2 GW contracts.[1][2][3]
- Perry (PJM): Delivery Dec 2026; uprates from 2031-2034.[1]
- Davis-Besse (PJM): Delivery Dec 2027.[1]
- Beaver Valley (PJM): Uprate support; operational.[2]
- Comanche Peak (ERCOT): AWS PPA energizes Q4 2027; license to 2053; uprates/up to 200 MW studied.[4]
- All plants: Operational; NRC DFP updates Feb 2026 confirm decommissioning funding adequacy.[5]
Implications for Competitors/Entrants: New entrants lack Vistra's data moat from real-time merchant ops for underwriting PPAs; hyperscalers prioritize existing nuclear scale over greenfield builds (5-10yr timelines), favoring incumbents like Vistra for immediate baseload.
Gas Fleet Expansion: Acquisitions Triple Dispatchable Capacity in High-Demand ISOs
Vistra closed 2,600 MW Lotus gas acquisition (Nov 2025, ERCOT/PJM/ISO-NE) and announced $4B Cogentrix deal (5,500 MW gas, closing mid-late 2026 across PJM/ISO-NE/ERCOT), pushing pro forma CCGT fleet to ~26 GW; added 860 MW Permian Basin units (construction started, tripling site) and Texas gas uprates—mechanism leverages efficient post-2016 plants (heat rates <7,000 Btu/kWh) for AI-peaking, clearing 10,566 MW in PJM 2027/28 auction ($1.3B revenue).[6][7][8][3]
- Texas/ERCOT: ~19,858 MW CCGT (e.g., Forney 1,912 MW, Midlothian 1,596 MW).[3]
- East (PJM/MISO/NYISO/ISO-NE): ~22,254 MW.[3]
- All operational; strong Winter Storm Fern 2025 performance.[8]
Implications for Competitors/Entrants: Gas build cycles (3yrs) outpace nuclear/solar; Vistra's ~$730/kW acquisition pricing + hedging (100% 2026 volumes) creates moat vs. pure-play developers facing turbine backlogs to 2030.
Solar and Coal Transitions: Reclaimed Sites Add Renewables Amid Retirements
Commissioned 200 MW Oak Hill Solar (Oct 2025, ERCOT, on retired coal mine; AWS PPA); progress on Pulaski/Newton IL solar (MISO); total solar/battery ~1,421 MW—repurposes coal sites (e.g., Martin Lake 2,455 MW coal operational ERCOT) for hybrid dispatchable-renewable clusters, capturing ancillary revenue while coal phases down.[6][8][3]
Implications for Competitors/Entrants: Site reclamation lowers solar LCOE 20-30%; Vistra's coal-to-solar pivot blocks greenfield solar in constrained ISOs.
Battery Storage: Moss Landing Fire Triggers Decommissioning and Claims
Jan 16, 2025 fire at Moss Landing Phase 1 (300 MW/1,200 MWh, CAISO) damaged ~55% of 100,000 lithium-ion batteries due to thermal runaway (cause TBD; 3rd suppression failure); EPA-led cleanup (NFRA Jan 22, 2025; CERCLA order Jul 17); Vistra recognized business interruption insurance proceeds (Asset Closure segment), transferred 100 MW Moss 100 to closure (Q1 2025), announced Moss 100 decommissioning Apr 2026 for safety; wrote off $400M; ongoing lawsuits (negligence, metals fallout); CA fire safety standards updated.[9][10][11][8]
- Total Moss Landing: ~450-724 MW battery (Phases I/II); offline since fire.
- Other: Upton 2 (260 MW hybrid ERCOT), Baldwin/Coffeen (MISO).[3]
Implications for Competitors/Entrants: Fire risk hikes insurance premiums/exclusions for BESS; Vistra pivots to gas/nuclear hybrids, deterring pure storage plays in CAISO.
Fleet Summary Table (Post-Lotus, as of Dec 31, 2025; ~44 GW Total; Pro Forma ~50 GW w/ Cogentrix)
| Fuel Type | Geography/ISO | Major Assets/Cluster | Capacity (MW) | Status/Role | Source[3][12] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | ERCOT | Comanche Peak (2 units) | 2,400 | Operational; AWS PPA | [4] |
| PJM | Beaver Valley (2 units) | 1,872 | Operational; Meta uprates | [2] | |
| PJM | Davis-Besse | 908 | Operational; Meta PPA/uprates | [2] | |
| PJM | Perry | 1,268 | Operational; Meta PPA/uprates | [2] | |
| Subtotal | ~6,448 | Baseload/AI supply | |||
| Gas (CCGT/CT) | ERCOT (Texas ~19,858) | Forney, Midlothian, etc. + Permian (tripling) | ~26,000 (post-Cogentrix) | Operational/Peakers; Lotus + Cogentrix | [7] |
| PJM/MISO/NYISO/ISO-NE (East ~22k) | Kendall, Liberty, etc. | ||||
| Coal | ERCOT | Martin Lake (2,455), Oak Grove, Coleto | ~4,570 | Operational (phasing) | |
| Solar | ERCOT/MISO | Oak Hill (200), Brightside, Upton 2, etc. | ~1,200+ | New ops; hybrids | |
| Battery | CAISO | Moss Landing (Ph I/II ~450-724) | Offline/Closure | Ancillary; fire-impacted | [3] |
| ERCOT/MISO | Upton 2 (260 hybrid), etc. | ~200 | Operational |
What This Means Overall: No major retirements; focus on gas/nuclear scale-up grows fleet ~15% to 50 GW pro forma, hedging execution risk via PPAs (84% 2027 volumes); competitors face 3-5yr build lags, favoring Vistra's ~$5.9B 2025 EBITDA base.[8] Confidence high on sourced data; fleet table from Q3/Q4 2025 presentations (no newer full inventory).