Source Report
Research Question
Research Tempus AI's publicly reported financials from its S-1 filing, subsequent 10-K/10-Q filings, and analyst estimates (2022–2025). Specifically cover: total revenue growth trajectory, gross margin by segment (Genomics vs. Data & Services), operating losses, EBITDA, cash burn rate, cash and equivalents on hand, and any public guidance. Identify what Wall Street consensus expects for revenue and margin inflection, and what milestones would signal a path to profitability. Present data in a structured table with sources.
Revenue Growth Trajectory
Tempus AI's revenue accelerated dramatically from 2022 to 2025, driven initially by genomics scale-up and data licensing expansion, then supercharged by 2025 acquisitions like Ambry Genetics (hereditary testing), which boosted diagnostics to over 75% of mix while data/services provided high-margin stability; this flywheel—where diagnostics generate proprietary multimodal data fueling 38% Insights growth—created a structural shift, with total revenue compounding at ~59% CAGR over four years, though growth is expected to normalize to 25% in 2026 as comps toughen and organic diagnostics volumes (26-29%) sustain via reimbursement wins (oncology ASP up to $1,640 in Q4 2025, targeting >$2,200).[1][2][3]
- 2022: $320.7M total (62% genomics, 38% data/services)[1]
- 2023: $531.8M (+65.8% YoY; genomics +83%, data +38%)[1]
- 2024: $693.4M (+30.4%; genomics +24%, data +43%)[4]
- 2025: $1,271.8M (+83.4%; diagnostics/genomics $955.4M/+111%, data/apps $316.4M/+31%)[2]
- 2026 Guide: ~$1.59B (+25%), matching/slightly exceeding consensus ~$1.58B[5]
For competitors/new entrants, Tempus's data moat (>$1.1B TRCV, 126% NRR) locks in pharma deals (e.g., AstraZeneca), making replication hard without equivalent scale/volume for longitudinal RWD.[3]
Gross Margins by Segment (Genomics/Diagnostics vs. Data & Services)
Tempus's margins expanded via genomics lab efficiencies (automation, volume leverage) and data/services' software-like economics (73%+ non-GAAP), with mix shift pushing consolidated from 41% (2022) to 63% non-GAAP (2025); genomics margins tripled as fixed lab costs diluted over 26-29% volume growth, while data's near-zero marginal COGS (licensing de-identified datasets) sustained 70-80%, enabling operating leverage as data hit 25% mix.[1][4][3]
| Year | Total Margin (GAAP) | Genomics/Diagnostics (GAAP) | Data/Services (GAAP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 40.6%[1] | 24.1%[1] | 67.2%[1] |
| 2023 | 53.8%[1] | 47.9%[1] | 66.6%[1] |
| 2024 | 55.0%[4] | 46.1%[4] | 71.5%[4] |
| 2025 | 62.7%[2] | 59.6%[2] | 72.3%[2] |
Non-GAAP margins ~3-5pts higher (excl. SBC). Wall Street expects continued expansion to 65-70% consolidated as data nears 35-40% mix.[6]
Entrants must match this leverage; pure-play diagnostics lack data flywheel for 70%+ services margins.
Operating Losses & Adjusted EBITDA Path
Operating losses narrowed as gross profit outpaced opex (despite acquisitions/SBC), with adj. EBITDA inflecting positive Q4 2025 ($12.9M) after steady improvement; mechanism: ~2/3 incremental gross profit reinvested, 1/3 to EBITDA, yielding $97M YoY gain despite Paige/OneOme costs—signals scale where revenue growth covers fixed opex.[2][3]
| Year | Op. Loss | Adj. EBITDA |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $(265.4)M[1] | $(238.8)M[1] |
| 2023 | $(196.1)M[1] | $(154.2)M[1] |
| 2024 | $(691.1)M[4] | $(104.7)M[4] |
| 2025 | $(252.9)M[2] | $(7.4)M[2] |
Consensus sees 2026 EBITDA ~$65M (company guide, aligns with ~$1.58-1.59B rev), margin ~4%—inflection via leverage.[5]
Milestone: Sustained quarterly positive EBITDA (achieved Q3-Q4 2025) signals profitability path; rivals need similar cost discipline.
Cash Burn Rate & Liquidity
Burn peaked 2023 amid investments but stabilized 2025 despite acquisitions, funded by $884M financing (notes/ATM); net ops cash use improved via working capital/gross profit, with $760M cash runway >3yrs at 2025 burn (~$218M ops). Mechanism: Receivables lag offset by data deferred rev; post-IPO/raises, liquidity buffers growth.[2][1]
| Year | Ops Cash Burn | Cash & Equiv. (EOY) |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $(168.2)M[1] | $302.9M[1] |
| 2023 | $(214.3)M[1] | $165.8M[1] |
| 2024 | $(189.0)M[4] | $341.0M[4] |
| 2025 | $(218.1)M[2] | $759.7M (incl. mkt secs)[2] |
For entrants, Tempus's $760M war chest funds M&A/AI without dilution soon; burn reduction via EBITDA key watch.
Wall Street Consensus & Profitability Milestones
Consensus aligns with guide (~$1.59B 2026 rev, $65M EBITDA), viewing Q4 positive EBITDA/margin gains as inflection; non-obvious: 126% NRR/$1.1B TRCV imply backlog conversion drives FCF by 2028-29, with ASP hikes/MRD scale as catalysts. Milestones: Q1 2026 EBITDA beat (guide ~$(5)M), oncology ASP >$2,000, data >35% mix—triggering sustained profitability.[5][3]
| Metric | 2025 Actual | 2026 Consensus/Co. Guide |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.27B | $1.59B[5] |
| Adj. EBITDA | $(7.4)M | $65M[2] |
Compete by proving flywheel (volume→data→revenue); milestones validate defensibility. Data confidence high (SEC/earnings direct); 2022 estimates from S-1 (audited).
Recent Findings Supplement (March 2026)
Tempus AI's Q4/FY 2025 Earnings (Released Feb 24, 2026) Marked Its First Positive Adjusted EBITDA Quarter at $12.9M, Driven by 33.5% Organic Revenue Growth Excluding Ambry Acquisition—Signaling Margin Expansion via Scale in High-Margin Data Licensing (69% Insights Growth) While Genomics Volumes Surged 29% in Oncology.[1]
- FY 2025 revenue hit $1.3B (83.4% YoY), with Diagnostics/Genomics at $955.4M (111.5% YoY, Oncology +26%, Hereditary +29% volumes); Data & Services $316.4M (30.9% YoY, Insights +38%).[1]
- Gross margins: Diagnostics GAAP 59.6% (non-GAAP 60.3%), Data GAAP 72.3% (non-GAAP 73.3%), total GAAP 62.7%—up from prior periods due to pricing and mix shift.[1]
- Operating loss $252.9M FY; net loss $245.0M; FY Adjusted EBITDA $(7.4)M (improved $97M YoY despite Paige/OneOme costs); cash/marketables $759.7M end-2025 (no explicit burn rate, but prior Q3 op. cash use $181M nine months).[1][2]
For competitors/entering firms: Tempus' $1.1B+ remaining contract value and 126% NRR create a data moat; new entrants need proprietary multimodal datasets (450PB+) to replicate Insights scalability.
Q3 2025 10-Q (Filed Nov 4, 2025) Confirmed Genomics Margin Inflection to 61.0% GAAP on 117% Revenue Surge, While Data/Services Held 68.5%—Updating FY Guidance to $1.265B Revenue and Positive Adjusted EBITDA, a $100M+ YoY Improvement.[2][3]
- Q3 revenue $334.2M (+84.7% YoY); Genomics $252.9M (Oncology $139.5M +31.7%, Hereditary $102.6M +32.8% pro forma); Data/Services $81.3M (+26.1%, Insights +37.6%). Non-GAAP margins: Genomics 61.7%, Data 69.7%, total 63.6%.[2]
- Op. loss $61.0M Q3; net loss $80.0M; Adj. EBITDA +$1.5M (first positive); cash ~$656-764M; nine-mo. op. cash use $181M.[2]
- Guidance raised: FY2025 revenue ~$1.265B (~80% YoY), Adj. EBITDA slightly positive.[3]
Implication for rivals: Tempus' connected network (5K+ providers) enables rapid data augmentation/studies at low cost, barring replication without equivalent clinician integration.
| Metric | FY2023 Est. (S-1) | FY2024 (Prior) | FY2025 Actual | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | FY2026 Guidance | Wall St. Consensus (Implied) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue ($M) | ~532 | 693 | 1,300 | 334 | 367 | ~1,590 (+25%) | Aligns; some see $1.59B+[1][4] |
| Genomics Rev ($M) / Margin (GAAP) | N/A | N/A | 955 / 59.6% | 253 / 61.0% | 267 / 61.4% | N/A | Volumes key to sustained 60%+ |
| Data/Services Rev ($M) / Margin (GAAP) | N/A | N/A | 316 / 72.3% | 81 / 68.5% | 100 / 73.5% | Accelerating | 126% NRR signals 30-40% growth[1] |
| Op. Loss ($M) | N/A | N/A | (253) | (61) | (61) | N/A | Improving leverage |
| Adj. EBITDA ($M) | N/A | (~104) | (7) | +2 | +13 | ~+65 | Inflection expected; monitors Ambry lapping[4] |
| Cash & Equiv ($M) | N/A | 341 | 760 | 656-764 | 760 | N/A | Runway >2 yrs at current burn |
| Sources | S-1 (pre-IPO)[5] | Prior[5] | Q4 PR/10-K[1] | 10-Q[2] | Q4 PR[1] | Co. Guide[1] | Analysts[4] |
Wall Street Consensus Eyes 2026 Revenue ~$1.59B and EBITDA Inflection at +$65M (Company Guide), with Profitability Path Hinging on MRD Adoption, AI Tools (e.g., Paige Predict Launch Jan 2026), and Reimbursement—Moderate Buy Rating ($79 PT Avg.).[4][1]
- Analysts (8 Buy/4 Hold/1 Sell): Guidance aligns but "muted" vs. 80%+ prior growth; EBITDA beats signal scale, but GAAP losses/debt persist.[4]
- Milestones: Q4 MRD tests +56% QoQ; $1.1B contract value; Immune Profile Score study; NYU/Northwestern collabs.[1]
For entrants: Path requires FDA clearances (e.g., HRD-RNA), pharma deals, and 25%+ sustained growth; Tempus' network effects barrier high. Confidence: High on reported data (SEC/PR); med on consensus (limited post-earnings detail). No Q1 2026 yet (exp. May).[6]