Source Report

Revenue Growth and Composition

Experian accelerates revenue through a mix of organic expansion in high-margin B2B data/analytics (72% of revenue) and Consumer Services (28%), where proprietary datasets enable real-time pricing adjustments and AI-driven personalization; in H1 FY26 (ended Sep 30, 2025), this delivered 8% organic growth (top of prior 6-8% range), outpacing FY25's full-year 7% organic, as North America B2B mortgage/verticals grew 10-11% via VantageScore adoption and tools like Patient Access Curator, while Consumer Services hit 9% organic on 208m+ free memberships and GenAI upsell (e.g., Experian Virtual Assistant).[1]
- TTM revenue (as of H1 FY26): ~$7.96B, calculated as FY25 ongoing $7.507B + H1 FY26 $4.058B - H1 FY25 $3.603B; aligns closely with query's ~$7.52B FY25 base but reflects 9 months FY26 momentum (full FY25 total revenue $7.523B).[2]
- H1 FY26 ongoing revenue: $4.058B (+12% constant FX, +13% actual vs H1 FY25 $3.603B); Q3 FY26 +8% organic sustained pace (North America 10%, Consumer Services 10%).[3]
- FY25 ongoing revenue: $7.507B (+8% constant FX, 7% organic vs FY24 $7.046B); FY24: $7.056B total (+7% constant FX, 6% organic).[4]
For competitors like TransUnion or Equifax entering credit/data markets, Experian's data moat (e.g., bureau-scale lending insights) demands massive CapEx to replicate, with new entrants facing 2-3 years to scale AI personalization before margin parity.

EBIT Margin Trajectory

Experian's Benchmark EBIT margin expands via operating leverage from cloud migration (>85% complete NA/Brazil by FY26 end) and GenAI productivity (reducing dual-run costs, automating workflows), turning 7% FY25 organic revenue into 11% constant FX EBIT growth; H1 FY26 margin hit 28.3% (+30bps actual, +50bps constant vs H1 FY25 28.0%), on track for FY26 +30-50bps to ~28.4-28.6%, extending FY25's 28.1% (+50bps vs FY24 27.6%).[1][5]
- H1 FY26 Benchmark EBIT: $1.149B (+14% actual/constant vs H1 FY25 $1.009B); TTM implied ~$2.36B (FY25 $2.107B + H1 FY26 $1.149B - H1 FY25 $1.009B).
- FY25: $2.107B (+11% constant FX, margin +70bps constant); FY24: $1.944B (margin 27.6%).
- Drivers: NA +100bps organic margin to 29.0%; offset by acquisitions/FX; ROCE stable 16.5-16.6%.[2]
Entrants must match this via $600m+ annual CapEx (9% revenue, trending to 7%), but Experian's 97% cash conversion funds it internally, creating a barrier as rivals dilute margins chasing scale.

Growth Breakdown: Organic vs Total

Total growth outpaces organic by ~3-4ppt from bolt-on M&A (e.g., ClearSale fraud, illion AU/NZ bureau), targeting data/product infills; FY26 guidance implies ~3% inorganic on $200m spend, with organic 8% (vs FY25 7% organic/8% total constant), as Q2/Q3 FY26 hit 9%/8% organic amid lending recovery and Consumer cross-sell.[5]
- FY26 guidance: 11% total revenue (+8% organic, top of prior 6-8%), +30-50bps margin (constant FX, ongoing); confirmed post-Q3.[3]
- FY25: 8% total constant (7% organic); FY24: 7% total constant (6% organic).
- Inorganic: FY25 ~1-1.5% from $1.2B deals (e.g., illion $330m); H1 FY26 acquisitions neutral to EBIT.[6]
To compete, fintechs like Upstart must acquire similar assets, but Experian's 1.8x net debt/EBITDA (below 2-2.5x target) enables cheaper debt-financed deals, widening the gap.

Free Cash Flow Generation

Experian converts 97% of Benchmark EBIT to operating cash flow (OCF) via tight working capital and productivity, yielding robust FCF (Benchmark OCF minus Capex) to fund $1.2B+ annual M&A/dividends/buybacks; FY25 FCF $1.411B supported leverage drop to 1.8x despite investments, with H1 FY26 OCF $885m (77% conversion, +25% YoY) signaling FY26 FCF ~$1.5B+ on Capex 8-9% revenue.[6]
- FY25 Benchmark OCF: $2.025B (97% conversion); FCF $1.411B (vs FY24 $1.170B).
- H1 FY26 OCF: $885m (77%, typical H1 seasonality); FY25 full OCF $2.025B.
- Capex: FY25 $651m (9% revenue); FY26 guide 8-9% (~$700m on $8.3B revenue).
New data players face negative FCF in early years building datasets/cloud, while Experian's moat yields 70%+ FCF margins, funding 10%+ dividend hikes.

Dividend Policy and Share Buybacks

Progressive dividend grows ~EPS pace (FY25 +7% to 62.50 USc, payout ~40% Benchmark EPS), with H1 FY26 interim +10% to 21.25 USc signaling FY26 full ~68 USc; buybacks offset dilution (FY25 net $179m, FY26 $200m program), with post-Q3 $1B program (ending Jun 2027) accelerating returns as leverage <2x.[6]
- FY25 total dividend: 62.50 USc ($546m paid); FY24: 58.50 USc.
- Buybacks: FY25 $179m net (completed program); FY26: $200m ongoing + $1B new (Jan 2026).
- Policy: Progressive, resilient; cover ~2.5x Benchmark EPS; trusts/treasury shares.
Rivals prioritize growth over returns, but Experian's FCF enables 4-5% yield + buybacks (2-3% EPS accretion), attracting income investors and pressuring multiples.

Performance vs Prior Two Years

FY26 on pace to lap FY25/FY24 acceleration: H1 organic 8% > FY25 7% > FY24 6%, with margins +30-50bps FY26 extending FY25 +50bps/FY24 flat; cash conversion steady 97%, leverage stable 1.8x enables $1.4B+ capital returns FY26 vs $679m FY25/$609m FY24 (dividends + buybacks).[4]
- FY25 vs FY24: Revenue +7% actual (+8% constant), EBIT +8%, OCF +9%.
- TTM growth: ~6% revenue, ~12% EBIT implied.
To rival, peers need FY24-like lending tailwinds, but Experian's diversification (B2B 72%, global regions) buffers cycles better.

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Recent Findings Supplement (March 2026)

H1 FY2026 Results Drive Guidance Upgrade

Experian leveraged its proprietary data assets and AI integrations across Consumer Services and B2B segments to deliver H1 organic revenue growth of 8% (constant currency), enabling real-time underwriting and fraud prevention tools that boosted North America (10% organic) and Latin America (4%), outpacing prior guidance and prompting an upgrade to FY26 organic growth at the top end of 8%; this data moat accelerates margin expansion by automating decisions banks can't replicate without equivalent datasets.[1][2]
- H1 revenue (ongoing activities): $4,058m (+12% constant currency, +13% actual rates vs H1 FY25 $3,603m).
- Benchmark EBIT (ongoing): $1,149m (+14% actual rates); margin +50bps to 28.3% (constant currency).
- Benchmark EPS: USc85.0 (+12% actual rates); statutory basic EPS: USc81.7 (+36%).
- Benchmark operating cash flow: +25% YoY, conversion 77% (vs 71% prior); net debt/EBITDA 1.8x.
For competitors: H1 momentum (Q3 organic also 8%) positions Experian to gain share in analytics/decisioning vs. Equifax/TransUnion, but requires sustained AI monetization to defend against FICO's direct scoring push.[1]

FY2026 Guidance: Locked at Top-End After H1 Strength

Post-H1 (Nov 2025), Experian raised FY26 guidance to 11% total revenue growth and 8% organic (constant currency, ongoing basis), with Benchmark EBIT margin accretion of +30-50bps, reflecting Q3 confirmation of 8% organic (Jan 2026 update) and AI-driven productivity in Ascend Platform/Curator that expands cross-sell without proportional cost increases—unlike peers reliant on legacy systems.[1][2]
- Initial FY26 guidance (May 2025, post-FY25): 9-11% total, 6-8% organic revenue; +30-50bps margin.
- Analyst consensus (as of Feb 2026): revenue ~$8.38B (implies ~12% growth from FY25 $7.51B), EPS $1.78.[3]
- Q3 FY26 (ended Dec 2025): revenue +12% actual rates (+8% organic), all regions positive (NA 10%).
New entrants must build comparable data scale first, as Experian's 200m+ free members feed predictive models unattainable via partnerships alone.[2]

TTM Financial Profile: Revenue at ~$7.97B, Strong Cash Generation

As of latest (post-H1 FY26, ~Nov 2025), TTM revenue reached $7.97B (+9.1% YoY), with net income $1.36B and levered FCF $1.32B, reflecting FY25 close ($7.51B revenue) plus 9M FY26 strength; EBIT margin trajectory upward via operating efficiencies (H1 +50bps), supporting progressive dividend policy unchanged at ~2.5x Benchmark EPS coverage.[4][5]
- FY25 (ended Mar 2025): revenue $7,507m ongoing (+8% constant, 7% organic vs FY24 $7,056m); Benchmark EBIT $2,107m (28.1%, +70bps); Benchmark OCF $2,025m (97% conversion); FCF $1,411m.
- EPS TTM ~$1.48 (+15.5%); dividend yield ~1.73% (forward $0.65/share).
- FY24: revenue $7,056m ongoing (6% organic); Benchmark EBIT $1,944m (27.6%); FCF $1,170m; dividend USc58.50.
Incumbents face pressure to match FCF/revenue ~17% ($1.32B/$7.97B), funding R&D without diluting returns.[6]

Free Cash Flow and Capital Allocation: Robust, Shareholder-Friendly

Experian's FCF mechanism—97% Benchmark OCF conversion in FY25 ($2,025m from $2,107m EBIT)—funds progressive dividends (FY25 total USc62.50, +7%) and buybacks without leverage creep (net debt/EBITDA 1.8x), with H1 FY26 cash conversion at 77% signaling full-year >90%; this auto-compounds EPS via reduced shares outstanding.[6][1]
- FY25 FCF: $1,411m (vs $1,170m FY24); supports $571m dividends.
- H1 FY26 interim dividend: USc21.25 (+10% vs prior).
- Buybacks: FY25 $179m net; FY26 initial $200m (offset ESPP); new $1B programme (Jan 2026, ends Jun 2027, ~3% market cap)—ongoing executions/cancellations as of Mar 2026.[7]
Rivals need similar conversion (>90%) to compete on returns, as Experian's policy prioritizes buybacks at depressed valuations (post-Q3 dip).[8]

Performance vs. Prior Two Years: Acceleration in Growth and Margins

H1 FY26 marks acceleration from FY25 (7% organic) and FY24 (6% organic), with Benchmark EBIT margin expanding to 28.1% (FY25, +70bps) from 27.6% (FY24), driven by B2B scale (Ascend) and Consumer Services (208m members); total revenue CAGR ~7% over FY24-26E, but organic/FY26 upgrade implies outperformance via lower FX headwinds and AI uptake.[6][9]
- FY25 vs FY24: revenue +6% ($7,507m vs $7,097m total); EBIT +8%; EPS Benchmark +8%; FCF +21%; dividends +7%.
- FY26E (post-upgrade): organic 8% (vs FY25 7%, FY24 6%); margin +30-50bps.
- ROCE: 16.6% FY25 (vs 17.0% FY24, slight dip from M&A).
To compete, new players must exceed 7% organic CAGR, as Experian's trajectory widens data/scale gap.[10]

Recent Announcements: $1B Buyback Signals Confidence Amid AI Tailwinds

Jan 2026's $1B buyback (to Jun 2027) upgrades capital returns beyond FY26's $200m, unchanged dividend policy (progressive, EPS-linked) and medium-term framework amid Q3 strength/AI (GenAI platform, EVA tools); no regulatory changes, but stock dip post-Q3 used to repurchase ~3% shares accretively.[7][8]
- Ongoing executions: 400k shares cancelled Mar 2026; weekly updates.
- No TTM FCF specifics post-Dec, but H1 OCF +25% supports.
Entrants lack this flexibility—Experian's cash machine funds defense while peers chase catch-up M&A. Confidence: High on guidance (company-confirmed Q3); medium on consensus (sparse post-Nov data). Additional FY26 full results (May 2026) will refine.[11]