Research the publicly reported terms of Oracle's contracts with OpenAI…

Oracle has never put a customer name or a $300 billion figure on the OpenAI contract in an SEC filing. The number the market treats as fact is a press report that OpenAI later echoed, while Oracle’s own books show only an unnamed contract worth more than $30 billion a year starting in fiscal 2028, sitting inside a $664 billion backlog that management will not split by customer.

What is actually disclosed versus what is inferred

The only Oracle filing that sizes the economics is the June 30, 2025 8-K. Safra Catz said Oracle had signed multiple large cloud services agreements, “including one that is expected to contribute more than $30 billion in annual revenue starting in FY28,” and warned that amounts ultimately recognized “may vary.” The customer was not named. [1]

Ten weeks later, the Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI had signed a contract to buy about $300 billion of computing power from Oracle over roughly five years, starting in 2027, requiring 4.5 gigawatts, and that a majority of the new contracted revenue Oracle had just disclosed came from that deal. Oracle declined to comment. [2] [3]

OpenAI then did what Oracle would not. On September 23, 2025, OpenAI wrote that the July agreement to develop up to 4.5 gigawatts of additional Stargate capacity “represents a partnership that exceeds $300 billion between the two companies over the next five years.” That is a counterparty disclosure, not an Oracle RPO line item. Clay Magouyrk is quoted in the same post on delivery, not on dollars. [4]

The two official numbers are reconcilable only if the contract ramps. A flat $30 billion a year for five years is $150 billion. A $300 billion total over five years is a $60 billion average. The Journal’s account was that yearly revenue rises as sites come online. In October 2025 Magouyrk told CNBC that OpenAI can “of course” pay $60 billion a year — an affordability comment that accepts the higher run-rate framing without stating total contract value. [5]

“Stargate” is a brand, not the purchase contract. The January 21, 2025 announcement was a new company intending to invest $500 billion over four years, with SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, and MGX as initial equity funders, SoftBank holding financial responsibility and OpenAI operational responsibility. [6] The $300 billion figure is OpenAI’s purchase obligation to Oracle, not the joint venture’s equity check. Later reporting described the JV itself as having been sidelined as an operating company, with “Stargate” reused as an umbrella for compute deals. That is press characterization, not a restatement by Oracle. [7] [8]

Contract table

Contract	Counterparty	Reported size	Start / end	Source	Flag
Unnamed cloud services agreement	Not named in the filing; press later identified OpenAI	More than $30 billion of annual revenue	Starts in Oracle FY2028 (year beginning June 1, 2027). No end date in the filing	Oracle 8-K, June 30, 2025 [1]	Company disclosure of economics; customer is not a company disclosure
Stargate project announcement	SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX (equity); Arm, Microsoft, NVIDIA as technology partners	Intended $500 billion of investment over four years, $100 billion to be deployed immediately; 10 GW goal	Announced Jan. 21, 2025; four-year horizon	OpenAI announcement [6]	Company/partner announcement of an intention, not a signed purchase obligation and not Oracle RPO
Additional Stargate capacity	OpenAI / Oracle	4.5 GW additional; with Abilene, over 5 GW under development, “over 2 million chips”; jobs estimate over 100,000	Announced July 22, 2025; no payment start date in this post	OpenAI [9]	Company (OpenAI) disclosure of capacity, not dollars
Same July partnership, dollarized	OpenAI / Oracle	“Exceeds $300 billion” over the next five years; Oracle-linked sites described as able to deliver over 5.5 GW (Shackelford County, TX; Doña Ana County, NM; Midwest later identified as Wisconsin with Vantage; plus up to 600 MW near Abilene)	Five years from the Sept. 23, 2025 framing; capacity phased	OpenAI, Sept. 23, 2025 [4]	OpenAI disclosure. Oracle has not repeated the dollar figure in a filing
Cloud purchase contract	OpenAI / Oracle	About $300 billion over roughly five years; 4.5 GW; majority of that quarter’s new Oracle backlog	Starts 2027; roughly five years	WSJ, Sept. 10, 2025, people familiar; Oracle declined comment [2] [3]	Press estimate. This is the figure markets use
Michigan campus inside the 4.5 GW partnership	OpenAI / Oracle (developer named in the post as building the site)	More than 1 GW; Stargate then described as over 8 GW and more than $450 billion of investment over three years	Announced Oct. 30, 2025; construction expected early 2026	OpenAI [10]	OpenAI capacity/investment claim. The $450 billion is a program total, not an Oracle contract
Meta cloud agreement	Meta	Existence confirmed; size not disclosed by Oracle. Talks reported at about $20 billion, multi-year	Timing not disclosed. Named as a contributor to the Q2 FY2026 RPO increase (quarter ended Nov. 30, 2025)	Existence: Magouyrk, Oct. 16, 2025, via CNBC [11]. Size: Reuters/Bloomberg, Sept. 2025, person familiar [12]. Name in backlog: Oracle Q2 FY2026 release [13]	Size is a press estimate of talks, not a closed-deal disclosure. No GW or term has been published by Oracle
Non-OpenAI booking wave	Four customers, seven contracts; Meta confirmed as one; the other three not named	$65 billion of new cloud infrastructure commitments in 30 days	Spoken Oct. 16, 2025, covering the then-current quarter	Magouyrk at Oracle AI World, reported by CNBC [11]	Company statement via a conference, not an SEC filing. Individual contract sizes not given
NVIDIA as an OCI customer	NVIDIA	No dollar size disclosed. Named alongside Meta as a source of new Q2 FY2026 commitments	Not disclosed	Oracle Q2 FY2026 release [13]; Catz named NVIDIA among AI cloud customers on the Sept. 9, 2025 call [14]	Relationship is a company disclosure. Size is not. Separate from Oracle’s purchases of NVIDIA chips
xAI cloud relationship	xAI	No current size disclosed. A potential ~$10 billion multi-year expansion was reported in May 2024; talks were reported ended in July 2024. Catz still listed xAI as a customer in Sept. 2025	Not disclosed	Ellison had previously confirmed a training deal without a value (Bloomberg, 2024). $10 billion figure and the lapse are press [15] [16] [14]	Current dollar commitment is not a company disclosure. Do not treat $10 billion as a live contract
AMD	AMD	No customer-contract size. Separately, OCI is to offer a 50,000-GPU MI450 supercluster starting calendar Q3 2026	Supplier deployment, not an AMD purchase of OCI	AMD/Oracle announcement, Oct. 14, 2025 [17]; Catz listed AMD as a cloud customer [14]	The 50,000-GPU item is a chip-supply partnership, not RPO from AMD as a buyer
Tencent GPU access	Tencent	About $7 billion over five years; ~100,000 accelerators in Southeast Asia; ~30% upfront	Reported Oct. 2026; five-year term	Financial Times, via Network World; neither company confirmed [18]	Press estimate. Unconfirmed
Customer-funded hardware inside large AI contracts	Multiple, unnamed	$75 billion of prepaid or customer-supplied GPU value inside large AI contracts	Cumulative as of May 31, 2026; most of the Q3 and Q4 FY2026 RPO increases were this structure	Oracle FY2026 Q4 release [19]	Company disclosure. Not allocated to OpenAI or anyone else
Data-center leases not yet commenced	Landlords, not cloud customers	$288 billion of additional lease commitments, substantially all data-center arrangements, terms of 15 to 19 years	Expected to commence between Q2 FY2027 and FY2029	Oracle 10-Q for the quarter ended Aug. 31, 2026 [20]	Company disclosure of Oracle’s obligation, not of customer revenue

How much of RPO is OpenAI

Oracle does not say. The August 31, 2026 10-Q states remaining performance obligations of $664 billion, of which about 13% is expected as revenue over the next twelve months, 37% in months 13–36, 34% in months 37–60, and the rest thereafter. It names no customer. [20] The FY2026 10-K says no single customer was 10% or more of revenue in fiscal 2026, 2025, or 2024. That sentence is about recognized revenue. The backlog that created the concentration had barely started to convert. [21]

The backlog path, all company-reported:

• May 31, 2025: about $138 billion.
• August 31, 2025: $455 billion, up $317 billion in one quarter. Catz: four multi-billion-dollar contracts with three customers. She also said Oracle had signed with “the who’s who of AI, including OpenAI, xAI, Meta, NVIDIA, AMD, and many others” — a customer list, not an allocation of the $317 billion. [22] [14]
• November 30, 2025: $523 billion, up $68 billion, “highlighted by new commitments from Meta, NVIDIA, and others.” [13]
• February 2026 quarter-end: $553 billion.
• May 31, 2026: $638 billion, up $85 billion. Most of the Q3 and Q4 increases were large AI contracts in which the customer prepaid the GPUs or supplied them; that hardware portion totaled $75 billion. [19]
• August 31, 2026: $664 billion. More than $30 billion of additional AI cloud contracts in the quarter, structured so they did not change Oracle’s capital plan. Q1 customer prepayments with a significant financing component were $11.4 billion. [23] [20]

Attribution is arithmetic on other people’s numbers, and the estimates disagree by vintage:

• At the $455 billion print, Journal sources said the majority of the new revenue was OpenAI. A sell-side note the next day treated RPO excluding OpenAI as $155 billion, which implies roughly $300 billion, or about two-thirds of the then-backlog. [2] [24]
• Commentary around the $523 billion and $553 billion prints still described OpenAI as more than half, or “more than $300 billion,” of RPO. The widely circulated “more than half of $523 billion” line is tied to the December 2025 quarter, not to the current book. [8] [25]
• Against the current $664 billion, if the reported contract is still about $300 billion and still almost entirely unearned — consistent with revenue starting in FY2028, and with only 13% of total RPO due inside twelve months — OpenAI is roughly 45%. That is the figure secondary write-ups were using in early October 2026. [26] It is a lower bound only if OpenAI’s own “exceeds $300 billion” language is taken literally and none of it has been recognized or cancelled. Oracle has not confirmed either assumption.

The diversification management points to is real but unallocated. In the 30 days before October 16, 2025, Magouyrk said Oracle contracted $65 billion across seven contracts from four customers, “none of those customers are OpenAI,” and confirmed Meta was one of the four. [11] That $65 billion, plus the later unnamed AI bookings, is why OpenAI’s share of the book should have fallen from the roughly two-thirds implied in September 2025 toward something closer to half or less — if the $300 billion figure did not itself grow. The filings do not let an outsider prove that.

Why the duration mismatch is the actual risk

Oracle’s customer contracts and Oracle’s buildings do not have the same clock. As of August 31, 2026, additional lease commitments not yet on the balance sheet were $288 billion, substantially all data-center arrangements, generally 15 to 19 years, expected to start between the second quarter of fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2029. [20] The OpenAI purchase obligation, as reported, runs about five years and does not start in size until 2027 or FY2028. Oracle does not own most of the shells. Abilene, the flagship Stargate site, is built and financed by Crusoe; Oracle furnishes and operates it. [27]

That is the mechanism behind the counterparty debate. If OpenAI pays, the leases are a funding bridge against contracted revenue. If OpenAI resizes or slips, Oracle is the tenant for 15–19 years against a customer whose obligation, on the reported terms, is much shorter. Oracle has said capacity can be reallocated quickly and that GPU utilization is extremely high; those are management claims about demand fungibility, not contractual take-or-pay terms published in a filing. KeyBanc’s September 2025 estimate that the OpenAI build could require on the order of $100 billion of new debt over four years was an analyst projection, and later contract structures (customer-supplied and prepaid GPUs) were explicitly designed to cut Oracle’s own chip funding. [28] [19]

What this means if you are underwriting the backlog

Treat $300 billion as OpenAI’s number and the Journal’s number, not Oracle’s. The auditable Oracle facts are: one unnamed contract above $30 billion a year from FY2028; RPO of $664 billion with no customer split; no customer at 10% of recognized revenue through May 2026; $75 billion of large-AI-contract hardware already funded by customers as of May 2026; and $288 billion of long data-center leases Oracle has committed to start. Anyone who publishes “OpenAI is 45% of RPO” or “more than half” is doing arithmetic on a press figure Oracle has never confirmed and has, when asked, declined to comment on. The competitive implication is that Oracle’s disclosed moat is capacity delivery and contract structure (prepay and bring-your-own-hardware), not a public, customer-level backlog that a rival or a creditor can diligence from the filings.

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Recent Findings Supplement (October 2026)

Oracle has not disclosed customer-specific breakdowns of its Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) in SEC filings or earnings releases. All attributions of portions of the $664 billion RPO (as of August 31, 2026) to OpenAI or others remain press or analyst estimates. Oracle filings and calls emphasize large AI infrastructure contracts (many with customer prepayments or bring-your-own-hardware structures) but name no counterparties or exact sizes for the bulk of the backlog.[1][2]

Recent developments (post-April 13, 2026) center on confirmation and expansion of the OpenAI relationship, infrastructure progress on Stargate sites, diversification signals via other named or reported customers (e.g., Meta, Tencent), and updated RPO/capacity delivery figures. No material changes to previously reported core terms (such as the ~$300 billion OpenAI figure) have emerged from company disclosures.

OpenAI Contract and Stargate Updates

The core ~$300 billion multi-year cloud compute agreement (reported as spanning roughly five years starting in 2027 and requiring ~4.5 GW of capacity) received prominent confirmation in a July 2026 Wall Street Journal report citing people familiar with the matter. Oracle had previously hinted at >$30 billion in annual revenue from a major cloud deal beginning in 2027. OpenAI has described the Oracle arrangement as part of its broader Stargate AI infrastructure platform.[3]

In an October 6, 2026 announcement, OpenAI detailed an agreement with Oracle for an additional 4.5 GW of Stargate data center capacity in the U.S. Combined with the Abilene, Texas flagship site, this brings planned Stargate capacity under development with Oracle to over 5 GW (supporting >2 million chips). This advances OpenAI’s White House-era commitment to U.S. AI infrastructure investment.[4]

Infrastructure progress (newer tracker and site updates): Abilene campus reached ~618 MW accepted by Oracle as of late August 2026 (with ~75% of campus capacity delivered per a September 2026 tracker update); GPT-6 Astra was pretrained on >100,000 Grace Blackwell GPUs there. Construction began on the Saline Township, Michigan Stargate campus in June 2026 (targeting ~1 GW).[5][6]

Oracle expanded the commercial relationship in its Q1 FY2027 earnings period (reported September 2026) to include OpenAI API access, ChatGPT for work, and related models via the Oracle Marketplace.[7]

RPO, Capacity Delivery, and Attribution

Oracle’s Q1 FY2027 results (quarter ended August 31, 2026; reported September 10, 2026) showed RPO rising to $664 billion (+$209 billion YoY; +$26 billion QoQ), with >$30 billion in new AI cloud contracts booked (vast majority structured as prepay or bring-your-own-hardware, requiring no incremental Oracle capital). Cloud infrastructure revenue grew 121% YoY to $7.4 billion. The company delivered 850 MW of incremental data center capacity and >300,000 GPUs to AI customers in the quarter (nearly 3x Q4 FY2026 delivery).[1][8]

An October 2026 analyst compilation estimated that the reported $300 billion OpenAI agreement accounts for roughly 45% of the $664 billion RPO. Oracle provides no official split or customer concentration details beyond general risk-factor language about concentration among a few large customers; no single customer reached 10% of FY2026 revenue.[9][2]

Prior-quarter context (Q4 FY2026, reported June 2026): RPO reached $638 billion, with most sequential growth from large-scale AI contracts involving prepayments or customer-supplied GPUs (totaling $75 billion across recent periods).[10]

Other Large AI Customers and Deals

• Meta: References to a multi-year AI cloud deal (reported ~$20 billion in 2025 discussions) persist in recent coverage. Oracle executives have verbally highlighted diversification, including a prior statement on $65 billion in new commitments across four customers (none OpenAI, with Meta named). No new sizing or official Oracle confirmation in 2026 filings.[11][11]
• Tencent: New October 2026 reports (FT/Reuters, citing people familiar) detail a five-year, ~$7 billion lease for access to ~100,000 advanced AI chips across Oracle data centers in Southeast Asia (~30% upfront payment). This is Tencent’s largest overseas cloud commitment with a U.S. provider and helps navigate export restrictions.[12][13]
• xAI and others (Nvidia-linked, etc.): Mentioned as anchor OCI/AI customers with ongoing demand (e.g., additional GPUs for Grok models). No specific new contract sizes reported. Broader RPO growth includes deals with “various AI developers.”[14]

Contract Summary Table (Reported Terms, Post-April 2026 Sources Only)

Note: All specific dollar sizes and attributions beyond aggregate Oracle disclosures are press/analyst estimates or third-party reports (flagged below). Oracle filings name no counterparties for the bulk of RPO growth. Dates reflect reported signing/announcement or revenue start where available.

• OpenAI Cloud Compute (Stargate-related): Counterparty OpenAI; Reported size ~$300 billion over ~5 years (starting ~2027); Capacity 4.5 GW; Source WSJ July 28, 2026 (people familiar with the matter) — press report/estimate.[3]
• OpenAI Stargate Additional Capacity: Counterparty OpenAI (via Oracle partnership); Reported size Part of broader Stargate (no incremental $ beyond above); Capacity Additional 4.5 GW (total >5 GW with Abilene); Source OpenAI company announcement, October 6, 2026.[4]
• Meta AI Cloud Deal: Counterparty Meta; Reported size ~$20 billion (multi-year); Capacity Undisclosed; Source Reuters 2025 discussions + recent references (people familiar) — press estimate.[11]
• Tencent AI Chip Lease: Counterparty Tencent; Reported size ~$7 billion over 5 years (~30% upfront); Capacity ~100,000 advanced AI chips (SE Asia Oracle DCs); Source FT/Reuters October 2026 (people familiar) — press estimate.[12]
• Aggregate Oracle RPO (AI-heavy): Counterparty Various (incl. OpenAI, Meta, Nvidia, xAI, others); Reported size $664 billion (end Aug 31, 2026); Capacity Significant GW-scale AI infra (e.g., 850 MW + 300k+ GPUs delivered Q1 FY2027); Source Oracle Q1 FY2027 earnings/8-K, September 10, 2026 (company disclosure; no customer split).[1]

Implications for competitors or entrants: Oracle’s model relies heavily on customer-funded or prepaid structures to mitigate capex intensity, with high utilization (~98%) and renewal premiums supporting margins. However, concentration risk (especially OpenAI exposure per estimates) and long-duration lease commitments versus shorter customer contracts remain investor concerns in recent coverage. Diversification via deals like Tencent and Meta references provides some offset, but lack of granular disclosure limits precise benchmarking. New capacity delivery and Stargate expansions signal execution momentum but also highlight permitting/power and financing challenges.